{
 "published": true,
 "as_of": "2026-08-31",
 "source": "Berkeley Lab \"Queued Up\" interconnection queue data file, 2026 edition (ERCOT requests through 2025-12-31, CC BY 4.0), compiled from ERCOT's monthly Generator Interconnection Status reports; ERCOT GIS report August 2026 (MIS report type 15933)",
 "summary": [
  {
   "measure": "Projects in the test set",
   "value": "135"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Median error",
   "value": "11.0 months"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Actual results inside the predicted range",
   "value": "57%"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Fitted on projects through",
   "value": "2019-12-31"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Tested on projects from",
   "value": "2020-01-01"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Data as of",
   "value": "2026-08-31"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Source",
   "value": "Berkeley Lab \"Queued Up\" interconnection queue data file, 2026 edition (ERCOT requests through 2025-12-31, CC BY 4.0), compiled from ERCOT's monthly Generator Interconnection Status reports; ERCOT GIS report August 2026 (MIS report type 15933)"
  }
 ],
 "method": [
  {
   "text": "Cohort hold-out. Groups and their quantiles are fitted on ERCOT generation requests filed 2015-01-01 to 2019-12-31 (outcomes as known at the as-of date), then compared with requests filed 2020-01-01 to 2021-12-31. For each test project that was energized, the error is its actual months from request to energization minus its group's predicted p50; coverage is the share of those projects whose actual months fall inside the group's p25 to p75 band (50% would be ideal). A group needs 30 energized training projects, else the zone or ERCOT-wide numbers are used."
  }
 ],
 "groups": [
  {
   "group": "North zone",
   "n": 49,
   "predicted_p25": 42.3,
   "predicted_p50": 54.5,
   "predicted_p75": 65.7,
   "actual_p50": 45.6,
   "hit_rate_pct": 61.2
  },
  {
   "group": "South zone",
   "n": 29,
   "predicted_p25": 45.5,
   "predicted_p50": 60.1,
   "predicted_p75": 71.1,
   "actual_p50": 47.2,
   "hit_rate_pct": 55.2
  },
  {
   "group": "ERCOT-wide",
   "n": 17,
   "predicted_p25": 39,
   "predicted_p50": 52.2,
   "predicted_p75": 66.4,
   "actual_p50": 49,
   "hit_rate_pct": 70.6
  },
  {
   "group": "Coastal zone",
   "n": 10,
   "predicted_p25": 46.9,
   "predicted_p50": 53.6,
   "predicted_p75": 67.4,
   "actual_p50": 45.4,
   "hit_rate_pct": 40
  },
  {
   "group": "West zone",
   "n": 18,
   "predicted_p25": 33.6,
   "predicted_p50": 46.7,
   "predicted_p75": 59.2,
   "actual_p50": 35.1,
   "hit_rate_pct": 50
  },
  {
   "group": "West zone, 345 kV",
   "n": 12,
   "predicted_p25": 34,
   "predicted_p50": 48.9,
   "predicted_p75": 60.5,
   "actual_p50": 40.4,
   "hit_rate_pct": 50
  }
 ],
 "caveats": [
  {
   "text": "Fitted on ERCOT generation interconnection history. Large-load requests follow a different process (and Texas SB 6 rules); no public site-level large-load history exists yet."
  },
  {
   "text": "Censoring: 282 of the 564 test requests were still in the queue at the as-of date. They are neither failures nor successes and are left out of the error and coverage numbers. The test projects that are counted are the ones that finished within 48 to 72 months, so the actual medians here run short and will rise as slower projects finish."
  },
  {
   "text": "Check without censoring: the model gave the 564 test requests a 16.7% average chance of energization within 48 months; 14.4% of them were. The estimate ran optimistic for those request years."
  },
  {
   "text": "The training projects' outcomes are as known today, not as known at the cut-off, so this is a hold-out by request year, not a forecast that was made in the past."
  },
  {
   "text": "Energization means ERCOT's energization or synchronization approval where the August 2026 GIS report lists it, and the operational date in the Berkeley Lab file for everything else; the operational date usually comes a few months later."
  },
  {
   "text": "The public history ends 2025-12-31 (Berkeley Lab file). Projects that left ERCOT's list between January and July 2026 are counted as still open at 2025-12-31 because the monthly reports for those months were not available to this run."
  },
  {
   "text": "Withdrawals before August 2018 carry no date in the public file; they count in completion rates and are left out of the crowding measure."
  },
  {
   "text": "Withdrawn projects are missing a county or voltage more often than energized ones in the public file; group completion rates are corrected for that by spreading the unlabelled projects in proportion to the labelled ones."
  },
  {
   "text": "Small samples: a group's numbers rest on a few dozen projects. Solar, wind, storage and gas are pooled."
  }
 ]
}