{
 "published": true,
 "as_of": "2025-12-31",
 "source": "Berkeley Lab \"Queued Up\" interconnection queue data file, 2026 edition (PJM requests through 2025-12-31, CC BY 4.0), compiled from PJM's public queue",
 "licence": "CC BY 4.0 (Berkeley Lab \"Queued Up\" data file)",
 "request_years": [
  "2015-01-01",
  "2020-12-31"
 ],
 "compare": [
  {
   "market": "ERCOT (Texas)",
   "requests": 907,
   "completion_pct": 45.1,
   "ia_p50": 22.4,
   "energize_p25": 38.8,
   "energize_p50": 50.6,
   "energize_p75": 62.3,
   "backtest_error": 11,
   "measured_to": "Approval to energize or synchronize where listed, else operation"
  },
  {
   "market": "PJM",
   "requests": 3074,
   "completion_pct": 15.9,
   "ia_p50": 37.8,
   "energize_p25": 26.9,
   "energize_p50": 53.4,
   "energize_p75": 70.6,
   "backtest_error": 14,
   "measured_to": "Operation"
  }
 ],
 "groups": [
  {
   "group": "Virginia",
   "requests": 667,
   "energized": 99,
   "withdrawn": 467,
   "still_open": 101,
   "completion_pct": 17.5,
   "ia_p50": 40.5,
   "dated_agreements": 43,
   "energize_p25": 28.9,
   "energize_p50": 52.1,
   "energize_p75": 76.1
  },
  {
   "group": "Ohio",
   "requests": 364,
   "energized": 65,
   "withdrawn": 211,
   "still_open": 88,
   "completion_pct": 23.6,
   "ia_p50": null,
   "dated_agreements": 22,
   "energize_p25": 37.4,
   "energize_p50": 66.4,
   "energize_p75": 81.9
  },
  {
   "group": "Rest of PJM (with Indiana)",
   "requests": 2043,
   "energized": 243,
   "withdrawn": 1478,
   "still_open": 322,
   "completion_pct": 14.1,
   "ia_p50": 34.9,
   "dated_agreements": 47,
   "energize_p25": 25.3,
   "energize_p50": 49.6,
   "energize_p75": 67.4
  },
  {
   "group": "PJM-wide",
   "requests": 3074,
   "energized": 407,
   "withdrawn": 2156,
   "still_open": 511,
   "completion_pct": 15.9,
   "ia_p50": 37.8,
   "dated_agreements": 112,
   "energize_p25": 26.9,
   "energize_p50": 53.4,
   "energize_p75": 70.6
  }
 ],
 "summary": [
  {
   "measure": "Requests in the test set",
   "value": "1,794"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Of those, in operation and counted",
   "value": "27"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Of those, withdrawn",
   "value": "1,538"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Of those, still in the queue",
   "value": "227"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Median error",
   "value": "14.0 months"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Actual results inside the predicted range",
   "value": "74%"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Predicted share in operation within 48 months",
   "value": "9.1%"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Actual share in operation within 48 months",
   "value": "0.9%"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Fitted on requests through",
   "value": "2019-12-31"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Tested on requests from",
   "value": "2020-01-01"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Data as of",
   "value": "2025-12-31"
  },
  {
   "measure": "Source",
   "value": "Berkeley Lab \"Queued Up\" interconnection queue data file, 2026 edition (PJM requests through 2025-12-31, CC BY 4.0), compiled from PJM's public queue"
  }
 ],
 "method": [
  {
   "text": "Cohort hold-out, the same windows as the ERCOT backtest. Groups and their quantiles are fitted on PJM generation requests filed 2015-01-01 to 2019-12-31 (outcomes as known at the as-of date), then compared with requests filed 2020-01-01 to 2021-12-31. For each test project that reached operation, the error is its actual months from request to operation minus its group's predicted p50; coverage is the share of those projects whose actual months fall inside the group's p25 to p75 band (50% would be ideal). Groups are Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and the rest of PJM; a state with fewer than 30 energized training projects is merged into the rest of PJM."
  }
 ],
 "backtest_groups": [
  {
   "group": "Rest of PJM (with Indiana)",
   "requests": 1107,
   "n": 19,
   "predicted_p25": 25.3,
   "predicted_p50": 52.5,
   "predicted_p75": 68.2,
   "actual_p50": 38.5,
   "hit_rate_pct": 73.7
  },
  {
   "group": "Virginia",
   "requests": 458,
   "n": 6,
   "predicted_p25": 25.8,
   "predicted_p50": 53.4,
   "predicted_p75": 77.4,
   "actual_p50": 48.8,
   "hit_rate_pct": 100
  },
  {
   "group": "Ohio",
   "requests": 229,
   "n": 2,
   "predicted_p25": 39.3,
   "predicted_p50": 68.3,
   "predicted_p75": 82,
   "actual_p50": 24.4,
   "hit_rate_pct": 0
  }
 ],
 "caveats": [
  {
   "text": "Fitted on PJM generation interconnection history, not large-load history. A data center or another large load does not go through the generation queue; no public project-level large-load history exists."
  },
  {
   "text": "PJM changed its interconnection process. \"The Transition Date was July 10, 2023.\" PJM describes the change as \"transitioning from a serial \"first-come, first-served\" queue approach to a \"first-ready, first-served\" cycle approach.\" (PJM, Interconnection Process Reform page, read 2026-11-09.) Every project counted here asked to connect under the old serial queue, so this history may not predict the new cycles."
  },
  {
   "text": "Censoring: 227 of the 1,794 test requests were still in the queue at the as-of date. They are neither failures nor successes and are left out of the error and coverage numbers. The test projects that are counted finished within 48 to 72 months, so the actual medians here run short and will rise as slower projects finish."
  },
  {
   "text": "Check without censoring: the model gave the 1,794 test requests a 9.1% average chance of operation within 48 months; 0.9% of them made it. The estimate ran optimistic for those request years."
  },
  {
   "text": "Small test set: 27 of the counted test projects asked to connect in 2020; none of the requests filed in a later test year had reached operation by 2025-12-31."
  },
  {
   "text": "The training projects' outcomes are as known today, not as known at the cut-off, so this is a hold-out by request year, not a forecast that was made in the past."
  },
  {
   "text": "Energized here means the operational date in the Berkeley Lab file. ERCOT's figures use ERCOT's energization or synchronization approval where its report lists one, which usually comes a few months before operation, so the two markets are not measured at exactly the same point."
  },
  {
   "text": "Agreement dates are published for few PJM projects (247 of 7,666 requests in the file, none after 2022-09-30). The months to a signed agreement rest on that subset; a group with fewer than 30 dated agreements shows unknown."
  },
  {
   "text": "PJM's queue lists small projects too: 41% of the energized projects in the fitted years were under 20 MW. ERCOT's public list covers larger generators, so the two are not the same mix of projects."
  },
  {
   "text": "A state is not a site. A group's numbers say what happened to past projects in that state, on many utilities' systems. Solar, wind, storage and gas are pooled."
  }
 ]
}